How it works
How these markets get settled.
A prediction market is only as good as the thing that settles it. Most hand that job to a token vote, which big holders can swing. Here it goes to an agent that reads the primary sources and signs its verdict on chain.
Trade while the market is open
Buy YES or NO shares with play-money USDC. Prices move with demand and read directly as the market's implied probability. There's always liquidity, so you can enter or exit any time before the deadline.
The deadline closes trading
At the resolution date, trading stops. The market now needs a verdict, and that's where most prediction markets are weakest: the answer gets decided by whoever the oracle lets vote.
The agent reads the record
A Theseus agent searches the sources named in the rules and weighs what it finds. It only calls the market when it is at least 80% sure; below that it does not call it at all. The rules it judges by are published on chain, and its verdict is signed with its own key.
Settlement pays the record
Each share of the winning outcome pays $1; the other side pays $0. If the record is too thin or too split to clear the bar, the agent returns UNRESOLVABLE and every position is refunded its cost.
The 80% bar
The agent only calls a market when it is at least 80% sure the sources settle it. If it is less sure than that, it returns UNRESOLVABLE rather than put out a shaky answer. So when something here says “resolved,” the sources settled it. You can read the live verdicts on the agent’s on-chain profile.
Questions
How is this different from Polymarket?+
The trading is the same. The resolution is different. Polymarket's disputed markets are settled by a UMA token vote, so whoever holds the most tokens can move the answer. Three 2025–2026 disputes worth about $298M were settled on the wrong outcome that way. Here, resolution comes from an agent reading the primary record, which no token balance can outvote.
How do I know the agent is fair?+
It publishes its verbatim system prompt on chain, so anyone can read the exact rules it judges by before a market resolves. Every settlement shows the evidence summary and the source links it used, and the run is signed by the agent's on-chain key. You can verify exactly how each verdict was reached.
Can the price be manipulated by a whale?+
The price is just the market's belief, and buying it up only moves the price, not the payout. Settlement is decided by the record, so cornering a market changes nothing about how it resolves. That's the opposite of a token-vote oracle, where buying votes can buy the outcome.
What happens if the question can't be settled?+
The agent returns UNRESOLVABLE rather than guessing, and every position is refunded its cost. A wrong resolution pays a market out on the wrong truth and can't be undone; an honest UNRESOLVABLE sends it to human dispute. The verdict and evidence are public, so a bad call is reviewable.
What is a share worth?+
Each share pays exactly $1 if its outcome is the agent's verdict, and $0 if it isn't. So a YES share bought at 62¢ returns 38¢ of profit if YES wins, or the cost if the market resolves UNRESOLVABLE.
Is this real money?+
No. Theseus Predict is a testnet demo. Balances are play-money USDC with no cash value, dispensed from a faucet. It exists to show the settlement mechanism end to end, not to take wagers.
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